The objective of this project is to elaborate, implement, monitor and evaluate programs and projects to be launched within the European Commission food security thematic program. Specifically, the project seeks to identify needs, activities, potential implementing partners and end users in the areas of research and technology, food security information systems, marginalized food insecure people in fragile countries, and innovations to fight food insecurity.

The project aims to identify potential provinces for agricultural and rural regeneration and development in Afghanistan. Specific contribution to the project includes the development of methodologies for sector analysis, benchmark analysis and survey designs to target provinces with potentials for the development of small business and agricultural markets in rural Afghanistan.

State of Food Insecurity (SOFI, 2006) assesses the progress in global and regional hunger reduction during the period of 1996-2006. The key observation is that 10 years after the 1996 World Food Summit, the number of undernourished people in the world remains stubbornly high. In spite of advances in some countries, virtually no progress has been made towards the Summit target at the global level. Because of population growth, the very small decrease in the number of hungry people has nevertheless resulted in a reduction in the proportion of undernourished people in the developing countries by 3 percentage points (from 20 percent in 1990-92 to 17 percent in 2001-03). This means that progress has been made towards the first Millennium Development Goal of halving the percentage of undernourished people by 2015.

This project evaluates the progress in hunger reduction that has been achieved over the period of 1990-2005, derives lessons from the past experiences, identifies future challenges to be addressed, and presents an agenda for enhancing food security. The progress is assessed using two indicators: the absolute number of undernourished people and the proportion of undernourished people. The 1996 World Food Summit (WFS) sets the hunger target as halving the absolute number, while the first Millennium Development Goal sets it to halving the proportion of underｭnourished people to half its level in 1990-92 by 2015.

This project assessed the impact of land use and agricultural practices on malaria burden in Mvomero, Tanzania. The practices that trigger malaria or its burden are identified, changes in these practices are proposed, and local capacity building activities are conducted to promote safer agricultural activities.

This project aimed to gather expert knowledge on critical areas to be investigated further, information needs to be addressed, and constraints to be released and capacities to be built. This knowledge was then used in the preparaｭtion of a guideline for the design of an integrated malaria information base for Tanzania. The guideline characterized the underlying information structure of the malaria control system concerned, drawing on a newly developed priority setting method benefiting from graph-theoretical concepts and principles of systems theory.

This project assesses Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and use in national agricultural research organizations and their partners in Georgia. Specific objectives of the project are: (i) To assess the availability of local, locally adapted, and relevant international information necessary for the development of improved agriculture research capacity, efficiency, and appropriateness in Georgia; (ii) To describe the strengths, potentials, and constraints of the present information and communication capacities and policies and strategies in research and research knowledge transfer; (iii) To compile an inventory of existing and preferred communication tools, channels, and actors; and (iv) To identify potential partners for the development of solutions, includｭing, where possible, already active or interested donors.

This project aims to introduce a system of the agricultural, health and environment sectors in which critical cross-sector linkages are examined that facilitate the flow of information and knowledge to counteract a community health problem. The project develops a conceptual framework using a systems methodology to define the system, its component organizations, and their linkages. It then illustrates the applicaｭtion of the conceptual framework to describe a model system in the context of its organizational linkages for malaria control.

This project aims to describe and analyze the main components of the agricultural innovation system (AIS), identify the main priorities that the public components of the AIS should address, and recommend changes in the functioning of the public components of the AIS to increase its effectiveness. The description supports the identification of the areas where the existing system is more likely to fail and develop alternative policies to release constraints on agents in the system, or on the way these agents interact.

This project examines the agricultural and institutional determinants of the resurgence of malaria in Azerbaijan. Using data over the period of 1998-2000, regression method and geographical maps are employed to identify key policy variables for malaria control. The study further introｭduces a framework to identify the critical areas where and how agricultural research can contribute to the fight against malaria. The empirical analysis suggests that (i) irrigation water use, (ii) land degraｭdation, and (iii) institutional factors, in particular the predominance of former state farms, contributed significantly to the malaria situation during 1998-2000. This finding further suggests that grounds exist for a cross-sector cooperation of government and non-government organizaｭtions from the agriculture, health, and environment sectors. Such cooperation, however, demands guidelines and frameworks aimed at promoting the development of capacities and institutions.

This study reviewed the literature on the effects of structural adjustment policies of the IMF on agricultural marketing and the environment in Ghana. Drawing on this literature review, the study developed various research hypotheses aimed to quantitatively examine the pathways through which the adjustment policies influenced marketing and the environment.

A statistic is developed to test the common assumption of asset allocation theory that the variance-covariance matrix of returns on different currency-assets, including the SDR, is stationary. The statistic is based on asymptotic theory and it reduces the covariance matrix to a vector, which is easily tractable in terms of hypothesis testing. Application of this test statistic to fixed-income returns, for various currency-based investors and for different intervals over the period 1982 ・1990, shows that the variances and co-variances of currency returns change with time, implying that investment managers should frequently update the risk estimates of their portfolios to attain optimal choices.

In evaluating their foreign exchange exposure, international investors often compare actual portfolios with those calculated under the assumption that the variability of returns on various currency assets is time invariant. This project applies autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (ARCH) model to test that assumption. For major reserve currencies, including the SDR, we find evidence that the variances of returns do vary over time and that ARCH models that specify changｭing variances are superior to models that assume constant variance. By incorrectly assumｭing a constant variability of returns, the error introduced is smaller with the SDR than with any other national currency.

Evidence is presented that the size and significance of the ARCH effects (autoregressive condiｭtional heteroskedasticity) observed in weekly data of returns on various currency instruments depend critically on the sample period selected. During periods of appreciation of the principle currencies of investment, the ARCH coefficients for the corresponding returns tend to be significantly greater than those estimated for the period of those currencies・depreciation against U.S. dollar. This result proves true even for returns on the composite currencies and gold, with that of the SDR following the pattern of the U.S. dollar and that of the ECU following the European currencies. However, SDR returns prove volatility free for both periods. The results indicate that the risk of a U.S. dollar base fixed-income portfolio should be adjusted appropriately during periods of appreciation of the principal currencies. Furthermore, the statistically significant ARCH effects prevailing for most currency returns appear to be diminishing in size and become insignificant when the sample is reduced from a decade to the last four years. The implication for portfolio managers is that they should use the most recent sample of currency returns with the sample period determined by the years of the accepted phase of the cycle of the currency in which they intend to invest.

This project conducts a rural poverty assessment and mapping in Lebanon, providing comprehensive information on the current rural socio-economic and institutional situation, and identifying activities and target groups suitable to IFAD assistance within its mandate for rural poverty alleviation. Survey results indicate that an analysis of rural poverty in Lebanon should not limit itself to rural activities. A suitable poverty alleviation strategy for the young should primarily focus on improving their access to employment in private services and the construction sector, rather than agriculture that contributes only a small percent to GDP.

This project aimed at assessing the consequences of agricultural reform in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Results indicate that agricultural reform in Armenia and Georgia has resulted in numerous small farms, which are mainly oriented to subsistence production and have rather low living standards. Markets for agricultural inputs and produce are still underdeveloped, and offer currently few incentives for growth. In Azerbaijan, reform has been slow, and farms represent early attempts to break away from large collective farms. Overall, in the region, poverty is not only wideｭspread among rural households but also relatively evenly spread.

The project aims to furnish background information to the European Commission for the formulation of its food security policy on Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Kyrgyz Republic. Counterparts in the project are locally appointed experts in each of the participating countries and the Rural Developｭment and Food Security Unit of DG-VIII of the EC.

This project aims to contribute to the further development of the Agenda 2000 proposals of the EC, coverｭing issues, such as WTO negotiations, enlargement, and budgetary perspectives. A further reform of the CAP was analyzed at the request of the Netherlands Ministry of Agriculture to provide a background note for the Parliament. A study was also undertaken to analyses prospects for further agricultural trade reform during the upcoming WTO-round.

This project assesses the effect of global warming on land productivity in Nigeria. The project is part of an overall program in which FAO seeks to improve the existing Agro-Ecological Zones methodology to perform a spatially explicit quantification of the greenhouse effect for Nigeria, Kenya and Bangladesh. Analysis suggests that even though the effects of global warming are not dramatic on average, some regions in Nigeria might be severely affected, while others might benefit from the climate change as predicted by Global Circulation Models.

The project constructed and used policy simulation models to assess alternative long-term strategies for a perspective plan for Nigeria for the years 1996-2010. It also provided an assessment of the agro-ecological feasibility of the three Perspective Planning scenarios. The findings suggest that special efforts should be given to the northern part of the country with its high population density and limited potential for yield increases.

This project provides a summary of the findings of the Ethiopia study entitled Consequences of the GATT 1994 Agreement for Ethiopia, updates its findings, and discusses three more recent issues that might have important consequences for developing countries in general, and the Less Developed Countries in particular, namely: the expansion of the WTO in scope and depth; the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Union; and, changes in agriculture itself, especially in OECD countries, where quality aspects of products and production processes are gaining importance.

This project assesses the impact of the new trade rules of the GATT 1994 Agreement on Ethiopia for the six commodities: wheat, haricot beans, sesame seed, coffee, beef and beef products, and hides and skins. Domestic policies of Ethiopia, which is not a member of World Trade Organization (WTO), are evaluated about their compatibility with the rules of the Agreement, and their effectiveness in making use of (new) opportunities to enhance international trade earnings. The main findings suggest that the GATT 1994 Agreement offers Ethiopia new trade opportunities through improved market access, tariffication of non-tariff barriers, international standardization, and reduced tariff escalation. Almost all current policies in Ethiopia that affect trade in the six commodities under investigation are compatible with WTO rules because of domestic liberalization and the less stringent WTO rules for developing countries. Considering these findings, Ethiopia is recommended to start preparations for its eventual membership of WTO.

This project examines the role of human resources in poverty reduction and household food security in Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Togo. It explores the possibilities for a regional co-operation among these countries in the areas of food production, trade and infrastructure, and human resources development policies.

This project analyzed the implications for agricultural productivity of land fragmentation and consolidaｭtion in India. The analysis indicated that not only over fragmentation of agricultural land per se but also bringing irrigation water to many small and dispersed land parcels were hampering the production, increasing food insecurity and poverty.

This project is part of a world-wide initiative under the auspices of the International Geo-Biosphere program. It investigates the interactions between climate change, land cover, agricultural producｭtion, and economic activities in a spatially explicit manner.

This project evaluates agro-ecological conditions in Africa. The study identified possible remedies to constraints that currently impede agricultural growth in Africa, emphasizｭing the spatial heterogeneity of land resources as a result of the geology of the contiｭnent.

The European Union (EU) will begin accession negotiations with Turkey in October 2005. Agriculture, food and rural issues will play a major role in the negotiations, raising questions about the consequences of EU membership for Turkey's agricultural sector and rural population. This Report presents a comprehensive description of Turkey's agricultural, food and rural sectors, focusｭing on institutional arrangements, performance and economic prospects. Topics dealt with include agricultural production, prices and policies, agricultural trade, environmental issues, animal and plant health, and conditions in rural areas. The Report explores the possible consequences of accession, both for Turkey and for the EU.